By Tom Dowler
Tom Dowler from the Crouch Touch Engage rugby blog gives his predictions for the new Aviva Premiership season and previews every teams chances this season.
Bath
Bath had a difficult season last year; they started poorly, but turned their act around in the second half of the season and managed to scrape in to 8th place. This year, they have landed the services of former Leicester man Horacio Agulla who will add experience and try-scoring potency on the wing, and Paul James from the Ospreys who is an able scrummaging replacement for David Flatman in the front row.
The coaching team has completely changed with the appointment of head Coach Garry Gold, who will hope to have a more successful season than he did at Newcastle in 2011/12, and Toby Booth, the former London Irish coach, who comes in to work with the Forwards along with Neal Hatley. Gold’s coaching team also includes Mike Ford and Brad Davis who will work on Defence and Skills respectively.
Key man: Michael Classens. The South African scrum-half is the heartbeat of the entire team. His combative approach around the base of the scrum and ability to fire out quick ball to his fly-half is crucial to Bath’s success.
Signings: Paul James (Ospreys), Rob Webber (London Wasps), Dominic Day (Scarlets), Horacio Agulla (Leicester Tigers).
Players out: David Flatman (retired), Duncan Bell (Clifton), Scott Hobson (Retired), Andy Beattie (retired), Peter Dixon (retired), Lewis Moody (retired), Matt Carraro (Montpellier), Nick Scott (London Welsh), Matt Keyte (London Welsh), Billy Moss (London Welsh), Mark Lilley (Bristol), Paul Roberts (Plymouth).
Last Season: 8th
This Season: 9th Bath will hope to improve on last season with the arrival of new coaches and a few key signings; however, the Aviva Premiership will be so competitive this season. Bath will not be able to compete with the physicality and pace exhibited by the middle of the table.
Exeter
The Chiefs backed up their outstanding first season in the Aviva Premiership with a phenomenal performance in last year’s tournament. They were unlucky to just miss out on the 4th and final play-off position. The men from the South-West qualified for Heineken Cup rugby which is a huge financial boost to the club, as long as the Chiefs don’t allow themselves to be too distracted by the European Competition, they should be capable of another top six finish. Exeter added some attacking intent to their repertoire last season, they need to continue to improve this if they want to push higher up the table and further in Europe.
Key player: Tom Johnson. The flanker is a tremendous leader for the Chiefs and his work rate at the breakdown was vital for impressive wins over Gloucester, Leicester and Sale last season. Johnson will hope to push for further England honours, but Rob Baxter will quietly be hoping to hold on to his club’s talisman.
Signings: A Brown (Doncaster), C Rimmer (Pirates), J Yeandle (Doncaster), D Welch (Scarlets), D Mumm (Waratahs), K Horstmann (Worcester), W Chudley (Newcastle).
Players out: J Andress (Worcester), C Bentley (retired), C Slade (Oyonnax), P Phibbs, B Rennie (Bristol), J Lightfoot-Brown (England Sevens), A Lockley (Moseley), P Phibbs (Leicester), H Stupple, J Vickers (Plymouth Albion), C Walker-Blair (released), P Short (retired).
Last season: 5th
This season: 7th this season’s campaign will be tighter than ever and the Chiefs have put a huge amount of pressure on themselves due to their success to date. Other sides have made more influential signings and this could prove to be the difference.
Gloucester
Gloucester’s season capitulated at the crucial stage of the tournament when Bryan Redpath jumped ship following a series of disastrous results. However, change is just what Gloucester needed. They have an experienced coach in Nigel Davies who worked wonders with young Welsh talent such as George North and Scott Williams at the Scarlets. Before Redpath left, he made some smart signings and Davies has added to the collection with Rob Cook, a masterful goal-kicker who averaged 80% in the Championship last season.
Gloucester’s back-line is infamous for its running rugby, with the likes of Charlie Sharples, Jonny May, Freddie Burns and Henry Trinder all able to run in tries for fun. Now Gloucester look likely to be able to back-up the flair with some much needed grunt in the forwards. Ben Morgan and Sione Kalamafoni will add real drive to the back row. This season, the Cherry and Whites will be captained by Jim Hamilton, shedheads will hope the passionate Scotsman can control of his temper and remain on the pitch
for the full 80 minutes.
Key Man: Jimmy Cowan. The former Highlander will provide Gloucester’s young back line with much needed quality possession. Too often last season, Rory Lawson was too slow from the base of the scrum. Cowan will also tutor Dave Lewis and the very promising Dan Robson who represented England U20s last seasons.
Signings: H Edmonds (Brumbies), S Kalamafoni (Nottingham), B Morgan (Scarlets), J Cowan (Highlanders), R Cook, D Locke (Pirates), B Twelvetrees (Leicester), S Monahan (Rotherham), M Thomas (Dragons).
Players out: M Cortese (Colomiers), S Lawson (L Irish), A Strokosch, L Narraway (Perpignan), B Deacon (Leicester), R Lawson (Newcastle), E Fuimaono-Sapolu (West Red Sparks), L Vainikolo (La Rochelle), N Runciman (London Welsh).
Last season: 9th.
This season: 5th Gloucester enter another year of transition, but useful signings in Billy Twelvetrees and Drew Locke complement the existing array of talent and help the West Country side jump back up the table.
Harlequins
Connor O’Shea’s side were outstanding last season, they ran in 53 tries and finished top of the Aviva Premiership in the regular season. Then, they beat Northampton 25-23 in the Semi-Final and took on Leicester in the Final at Twickenham.
They won 30-23 in front of a sell-out crowd. Undoubtedly, Harlequins’ first Premiership title came thanks to a fine balance between a big, hard-working set of forwards and the speed and flair of Danny Care and former All Black Nick Evans as half-backs. Harlequins have not recruited widely, but they did not need to. Quins will need to stay composed trying to defend their title; teams will want to take the prestigious scalp of beating last season’s Champions.
Key man: Nick Evans, the former All Black was the cornerstone to Harlequins’ success last season. His is one of the best passing fly-halves in the Premiership and his tactical nouse is second-to-none. Also, Evans is a dangerous runner, meaning that he can pick off tiring forwards at will.
Signings: Dave Ward (Cornish Pirates), Ben Botica (Perigeuex), Darryl Marfo, Rob Buchannan, Charlie Matthews, Joe Trayfoot, Ollie Lindsay-Hague, Will Collier, Sam Stuart (Academy players).
Players out: Tomas Vallejos (Scarlets), Chris York (Newcastle), Richard Bolt (London Scottish), Benjamin Urdapilleta (Oyonnax),Tomas Vallejos (Scarlets), Aston Croall (Sale), Matt Cairns (ret).
Last season: 1st and play-off winners.
This season: 2nd Harlequins will have another solid season, but they will not benefit from the World Cup like they did last year. Quins did not loose too many players, whereas Leicester and Northampton lost several key players. They should still be a good bet to make the final.
Leicester
The Tigers were beaten finalists last year and they will be looking to get back to winning ways with a strong showing this season. Leicester lost several players to the World Cup in 2011, but this season they will have a full squad available. New signing Miles Benjamin will be one to watch, the flier had an excellent try-scoring record at Worcester and he will get even more quality ball with the Tigers. He is my bet for top try-scorer in the Aviva Premiership in the 2012/13 season.
Key man: Manu Tuilagi. The England centre gives Leicester’s guaranteed forward momentum. His powerful ability to shrug off a tackle and deceptive pace make him a defender’s nightmare.
Signings: Robert Andrew (Pau), Dan Bowden (London Irish), Matt Cornwell (Mogliano), Verenki Goneva (Tarbes), Adam Thompstone (London Irish), Miles Benjamin (Worcester), Brett Deacon (Gloucester), Pat Phibbs (Exeter Chiefs)
Players out: Julian White (ret), Calum Green (Leeds), George Skivington (L Irish), Ben Pienaar (Moseley), James Grindal (Bristol), Billy Twelvetrees (Gloucester), Horacio Agulla (Bath), Jeremy Staunton, Alesana Tuillagi (NTT Shining Arcs), Tom Bowe (Plymouth Albion).
Last season: 2nd (lost in final to Harlequins)
This season: 1st Leicester will return to the top of the domestic table this season. They have recruited well and have enough strength in depth to cover the Six Nations and November international periods.
London Irish
After a promising 2008/09 season, London Irish have gone quiet in recent years. The club struggled financially and lost star players. The prodigal son, Shane Geraghty returns to the Reading based outfit, his agility and passing prowess should give London Irish an edge in attack this season.
Key man: Tom Homer. Last season’s top point scorer (with 278) is a goal-kicking machine and is a vital contributor to London Irish’s attempts to break in to the top six. Teams will be wary of him because he is a dangerous weapon with his boot off the tee and also with ball in hand.
Signings: H Aulika (Leeds), S Lawson (Gloucester), C Griffiths (Ospreys), G Skivington (Leicester), J Fisher (Bedford), T O'Leary (Munster), S Geraghty (Brive), I Humphreys (Ulster), S Sa (Catalan RL), M Worrincy (Skolars RL), C Gaston (Ulster), S Malton (Johannesburg University).
Players Out: C Dermody (ret), P Hodgson (Worcester), A Jarvis (Bristol), D Bowden (Leicester), S Hape (Montpellier), J Spratt (Ospreys), A Thompstone (Leicester), B Casey, K Roche (ret).
Last season: 7th
This season: 8th London Irish have exciting attacking talent in Jonathan Joseph, Sailosi Tagicakibau and Topsy Ojo, but they will miss the influence of Delon Armitage and Dan Bowden this season. Sadly, Irish have not been ambitious enough in the recruitment market.
London Welsh
Premiership new boys London Welsh face a monumental task to stay in the top-tier of English rugby. The Exiles were promoted after they challenged Premier Rugby’s decision to turn down their entry to the Aviva Premiership. London Welsh now face the prospect of having to increase their supporter base in their new home in Oxford at the Kassam stadium while producing the performances on the pitch that will guarantee them another season at the top table of English rugby.
Gavin Henson was seen a risky signing for some, but it his signature guarantees plenty of media interest in the Premiership newbies’ exploits. Unluckily for the Exiles, Henson suffered a fractured cheekbone in the pre-season 17-23 loss against the Scarlets. He will be out for six weeks. Despite Henson’s off-field antics of late, London Welsh will miss the fly-half/centre in his absence. It will however; give other members of the squad the chance to earn their Premiership colours.
Key man: Sonny Parker. The former Osprey brings a wealth of experience in to the centres, he was capped 31 times for Wales and the New Zealand-born centre played in Heineken Cups, Grand Slams and two World Cups. He will be a vital addition to the squad, his leadership and physicality will be inspire the squad’s youngsters to keep London Welsh’s hopes of survival alive.
Signings: E Williamson (Leeds), D Browne (Grenoble), M Keyte (Bristol), N Runciman (Gloucester), S Parker (Ospreys), G Henson (unattached), P Mackenzie (Esher), T Arscott (Worcester), B Davies (Ospreys), G Evans (Plymouth), N Briggs (Bourgoin), T Bristow (Dorking), P Ion (London Irish).
Players Out: G Roan (Cavalieri Prato), G Johnson (Cornish Pirates), M Powell (Moseley), R Lewis (Cardiff), P Mackey (Rosslyn Park), L Gibson (Blackheath), W Hurrell (Rotherham).
Last season: Championship Playoff Winners.
This season: 12th (Relegated). It is hard to see Exiles staying in the Premiership for more than one season; they do not have the squad to compete with the big guns. Their best hope is to try and keep their home record intact for as long as possible and to pick up a few points away at other relegation candidates’ venues.
Northampton
The Saints were unfortunate to narrowly lose 23-25 to eventual Champions Harlequins in the semi-final of the Premiership last season. Northampton play a good brand of running rugby, they have a fierce pack and some creative backs. They will undoubtedly be in the running for one of the play-off positions. It will be interesting to see if the try-scoring supremo Chris Ashton will be missed, and if Dominic Waldouck and Kevin Pisi can provide genuine try-scoring options.
Key Man: Tom Wood. The England flanker has had a poor record with injury of late, Saints fans will hope he will be back and fit in time for their first away game against Gloucester at Kingsholm. Wood is a combative back-row forward with enough pace to cause defences problems in open play.
Signings: Sam Dickinson (Rotherham), Gerrit-jan van Velze (Blue Bulls), James Wilson (Bourgoin), Luther Burrell (Sale), Dom Waldouck (Wasps), Kevin Pisi (North Harbour), Jamie Elliot, Ben Nutley, Mike Haywood (Academy).
Players out: Andy Long (ret), Ben Prescott, Cesare Sempere, Stuart Commins (all released), James Downey (Munster), Jon Clarke (Worcester), Chris Ashton (Saracens), Greig Tonks (Edinburgh).
Last season: 4th (lost in 15-24 in the semi-final to Leicester)
This season: 3rd The Saints should build on another promising season, they will be desperate to go one stage further this season and make the Aviva Premiership Final. As long as they can avoid too many injuries this season, they will have a good chance to make the showpiece Grand Finale in May.
Sale
Diamond has built up a big pack with Scotsman Richie Gray in at second row, to compliment the muscular presence of Andy Powell at the back of the scrum. Sale has one of the best technical scrum-halves in the Premiership in Dwayne Peel and they have a fly-half in Danny Cipriani, who on his day can be one of the most attacking playmakers in the world. However, sadly Cipriani is known to be a headline maker for the wrong reasons. I spoke to Redpath at the Sharks in City event in Manchester and he said that Danny will be making headlines for the right reasons.
He said “Danny has been very focused and training well in pre-season”. Cipriani seems determined to play for England again, so expect an impressive season from the former Wasps and Melbourne Rebels man.
Key man: Mark Cueto. The gifted try-scorer recently declared that his England career was over. However, Sale will be delighted to have his services all season, he remains a deadly attacking threat and is chasing Steve Hanley’s all time Premiership record of 75 tries. Cueto is only two short of equalling Hanley’s record; he should break the record in no time.
Signings: Eiffion Lewis-Roberts (Toulon), Richie Gray (Glasgow), Danny Cipriani (Melbourne Rebels), Cameron Shepherd (Western Force).
Players out: Andrew Sheridan (Toulon), Wame Lewaravu (Mont-de-Marsan), Scott Mathie (Eastern Province), Tommy Bell (Wasps), Andy Higgins (Newcastle), Luther Burrell (Nothampton), Iain Thornley (Wigan), Joaquin Tuculet (Grenoble).
Last season: 6th
This season: 6th Sale will look to consolidate last season’s efforts by securing another season in the Heineken Cup. Sale lack the strength in depth required to make the top four.
Saracens
The 2010/11 Aviva Premiership Champions had a solid season in their attempt to defend their title. They finished 3rd, but put in some terrific performances, losing only six matches and drawing one game. Owen Farrell is maturing nicely and is comfortable at fly-half or centre. Last season, he was helped by Charlie Hodgson pulling the strings in the No.10 shirt.
With the two of them on the field, Saracens have excellent tactical kicking ability and sublime distributive options. In the forwards, Saracens boast the agility of Shalk Brits at hooker combined with the power of Carlos Nieto at prop, Mouritz Botha at lock and Ernst Joubert at No. 8. Saracens need to develop their ability to convert scoring chances and play some slightly more attacking rugby to creep in to the top two positions in the Premiership.
Key man: Chris Ashton. The former Northampton man will be looking to recreate the ‘Ash-Splash’ for his new club while searching for the form he found in the 2011 RBS Six Nations, Ashton has a lot to prove after falling out with Jim Mallinder at Northampton following the announcement of his departure.
Signings: Lorenzo Romano (Aironi), Alistair Hargreaves (Natal Sharks), Nick Fenton-Wells (Stormers), Chris Ashton (Northampton)
Players out: Hugh Vyvyan (ret), Luke Baldwin (Bedford), Michael Tagicakibau (Bristol), Marcus Watson (England Sevens), Harry Allen (Harlequins), Hayden Smith (New York Jets NFL).
Last season: 3rd (lost in 15-24 to Leicester in the semi-final).
This season: 4th Saracens will make the top four with ease, they are very confident at home and have a tough approach to away games. Last season, they picked up victories away against Gloucester, London Irish, Bath and Leicester. If they can continue to build on that away form, they could force themselves back in to the top two playoff positions
Wasps
London Wasps have struggled on the pitch and off it financially recently. Although, coach Dai Young has stated that a secure takeover is imminent. This will provide the former Championship-winning side with much needed security. New signings include veteran Welsh and British and Irish Lions fly-half Stephen Jones and the powerful back-row forward James Haskell, who returns to his former clubs after stints in France, New Zealand and Japan. Wasps will still struggle to compete with the top half of the table, but they are more than capable of pulling off occasional shock victories when called upon.
Key player: Marco Wentzel. The vice-captain is an outstanding line-out forward and inspirational leader on and off the pitch. Wentzel will be vital to Wasps climbing up the table and any ambitious hopes of reaching Heineken Cup qualification.
Signings: R Thomas (Cardiff), P Swainston (Leeds), W Taylor (Ospreys), T Palmer (Stade Français), A Johnson (Cheetahs), J Haskell (Highlanders), T Bell (Sale), S Jones (Scarlets), L Thomas, J Bailey (Lyon), A Masi (Aironi), F Staibano (Airioni).
Players out: R Webber (Bath), B Broster (Biarritz), J Castex (Perpignan), A Cheeseman (Pirates), R Flutey (Ricoh Black Rams), T Prydie (Dragons), R Haughton (Jersey), J Burton (Loughborough), B Baker (Oxford University), S Thompson, D Ward-Smith, Tom Rees (ret).
Last season: 11th
This season: 10th even with financial security, Wasps do not have the squad capable of winning trophies like they did from 2003 onwards. Dai Young’s side should be confident in remaining in the Premiership as London Welsh are a much weaker outfit and they should sneak above Worcester this season with smarter signings over the summer.
Worcester
The Warriors had a good season in 2011/12; Premiership security was guaranteed with plenty of time remaining in the season. Home performances were crucial to Premiership survival, if Richard Hill’s side wish to climb higher up the table; they need to pick up more away wins.Key man: Craig Gillies. The towering second-row is consistently one of the best line-out forwards in England. The Scotsman weighs in at 115kg and gives real brutality to the Worcester pack. Without him, the Warriors would struggle in the set-piece and would be more wary of relegation.
Signings: J Andress (Exeter), R O’Donnell (Rotherham), D Schofield (Toulon), S Taulava (Rotherham), P Hodgson (L Irish), J Clarke (Northampton), J Matavesi (Racing Metro), D Lemi (Glasgow), N Walker (Ospreys).
Players out: C Fortey (Hartpury), B Douglas (Bristol), O Tomasczyk (Newcastle), B Gulliver (Bedford), K Horstmann (Exeter), C Hayter (Moseley), A Crockett (Newcastle), M Garvey (Castres), M Benjamin (Leicester), T Arscott (L Welsh), A Balding (Newcastle).
Last season: 10th
This season: 11th Worcester has shrugged off the tag of Premiership newbies and will look to build on a respectable effort last season. They will target strong performances in the Amlin Challenge Cup and attempt to force their way up the table. Ambitious Warriors fans will dream of Heineken Cup rugby, but this may seem far-fetched to many.
My Aviva Premiership Predictions:
1. Leicester (play-off winners)
2. Harlequins
3. Northampton
4. Saracens
5. Gloucester
6. Sale
7. Exeter
8. London Irish
9. Bath
10. Wasps
11. Worcester
12. London Welsh
Top Try scorer: Miles Benjamin (Leicester)
Top Point scorer: Nick Evans (Harlequins)
Have you any thoughts or comments? Who do you think will be crowned Champions in the Aviva Premiership 2012/13 season? Who do you think will be condemned to the misery of relegation?
Follow Tom on Twitter @TommyD91 and be sure to visit his blog for more Aviva Premiership articles crouchtouchengage.blogspot.com.
